GamePro recently ran a feature on their site detailing their predictions for next-generation console sales. Using a sales velocity chart of the first five months of a console’s launch, GamePro examined both last-gen and next-gen consoles. They predict that the next-gen leader will be Wii, followed by Xbox 360 and PS3. This is a reversal of fortune for both Nintendo and Sony, who swap places from the 128 bit generation when PS2 was first and GameCube last.
“Assuming history repeats itself in terms of sales velocity, expect Wii to outsell both the Xbox 360 and PS3 in that order, though not to the same extent as the PS2. We’re not alone in making this prediction, either; market research firm IDC also sides with history. The IDC 2007-2011 worldwide console report also predicts Wii to outsell both the Xbox 360 and PS3 respectively,” their article says.
Not surprisingly, the PS2 had the most sustained sales over the five month period way back in 2000, but was actually eclipsed by GameCube and Xbox in the fall of 2001 in the first two months of their life cycles. Over their entire lifespan, however, yearly totals of GameCube and Xbox never once passed PS2, while GameCube and Xbox crossed paths twice.
So far, in the first five months of this generational cycle, the Wii has been comfortably ahead in each month. While Xbox 360 sales declined month-after-month until they inched up from month 4 to month 5, Wii and PS3 sales have been in decline ever since month 2. The decline for both Wii and Xbox 360 were related to hardware shortages, whereas the PS3 has more to do with demand than supply. Anything could change, but it is interesting to compare historical trends.
